As the year started, there was a widespread view among economists and on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in the first half of the year... Maybe in March, maybe in May, but sooner rather than later.
But three months of hotter-than-expected inflation data followed. Financial markets then projected that the Fed would lower rates once, near the end of the year, or not at all...Interest rates for home and car loans tilted up again. And it seems the pivot party has been canceled.
But some experts argue that it has only been postponed, leaving forecasters divided about what the rest of the year will bring. Some market analysts and bank economists are making the case that rate cuts are still on the table.
These analysts generally contend that current measures of inflation are overstated because of lagging indicators, reflecting cost pressures from over a year ago, that will ebb in summer.
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