From a qualitative perspective, I continue to believe paying a volatility premium for a highly predictable outcome (the BTC halving) isn't worth a volatility event premium, Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata.
Traders typically place bullish bets on volatility ahead of binary events, uncertainty opens the door to pre- and post-event price turbulence, traders buy both call and put options or volatility futures to profit.
The impact of Bitcoin's reward halving on its native cryptocurrency and miners has been well documented. The cryptocurrency has historically produced stellar rallies in the 12-18 months following the halving.
Not to mention that nearly all the big volatility events in crypto had disappointed IV buyers when RV failed.
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